Insights · January 8th, 2008
Just a few hours before the New Hampshire vote count begins, it is a safe bet that Barack Obama will win, probably by a comfortable margin. What does it mean?
It is early, and the final nomination results are yet to be determined, but a central theme it seems to me is generational change.
In my previous post, Outlook 2008, when discussing “Population and Venture Capital,â€ I pointed out that in 2008 Venture investors were increasingly looking to the next, next generation, the Millennials. It is a generation shift in entrepreneurship.
Now, in politics, it looks as though the shift is from the Boomers, to Generation X. As I was discusssing with Dave Brown today, there is little appetite in the country for going backward to the 1990’s, no matter if you look on that decade fondly. There is no appetite for a continuation of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton rule (which could extend to 28 consecutive years of two-family rule with another Bush in the wings), no matter how you might appreciate Clinton policies. All of this has been missed in the run up to the election, believed in by Obama, but missed in most reporting and analysis.
JFK, in his1961 Inaugural speech famously said that the torch had been passed to a new generation. I think we will see a repeat in 2009.
(By the way, it is also my analysis that the appeal of both Obama and of Mr. Huckabee on the Republican side have a great deal to do with a cultural yearning for candidates who present what appear to be genuinely inviting and peaceful personnas, rather than combative and warlike, this after the first seven years of the century and all that we have experienced. This is despite what may or may not be Huckabee’s actual positions; his inability to garner votes tonight may suggest this analysis does not hold for Republicans and that appeals to fear and toughness still rule the day.)
Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.