Insights · March 24th, 2009
A topic on everyone’s mind is how long the current recession will last? That this recession is steeper and deeper than any since the early 1980’s, and it looks now like any since the Depression, is becoming fact. But when do we turn around?
I have been addressing this question and the economic meltdown for some time, here, and in my Outlook 2009. Recently I discussed the question with media futurist Gerd Leonhard in a video we produced for our ongoing series, whereisitgoing.com.
Gerd, based in Europe, believes as of now that we have a long way to go before a recovery begins. I argue in the video, as I have here at Futurist.com, that a turn-around is coming sooner. The amplifying effect of the 24-hour news cycle and mostly the Internet has had several effects – exaggerating our sense of what is happening, and speeding up the down cycle. This amplifying effect will work on the up cycle as well, and while this is not the only factor, it is one of the factors that will lead us to turn-around by year’s end. A turn-around does not mean we have recovered, but that the bottom has been reached and a recovery has begun.
Now, what comes out the other end is not the same economy as we had prior to this recession. Gerd makes the case in the video that the recession is partly the culmination of several disruptive changes, the Internet chief among them, now deeply impacting business models. On the other side of this recession is a changed set of business rules, and a new cultural outlook. Watch our conversation, recorded via Skype video, below.