Insights · December 20th, 2011
My friend and colleague Mark Anderson publishes the Strategic News Service, for many years the most accurate newsletter on technology trends. Each December he makes his top ten predictions for technology in the coming year. Among his ten predictions below (read them in full here at SNS) the two most interesting are number 1 about TV and number 3 about the cloud. Virtually every tech expert is saying that in the contest between computers and televisions the phone will be the winner. Not so fast, says Mark, next year the TV will emerge as the center. And cloud computing will dissipate somewhat as enterprises are unable to trust it for mission critical activity. Check out all the forecasts…
I. TV Becomes the New Center of Gravity in the tech universe, as all other devices find their niches in the TV galaxy.
II. 2012 Will See Tectonic Shifts in Phone Markets.
The Wireless Revolution Is Real: Asia Is In, Scandinavia Is Second. Nokia, the historic market leader, fails to regain global dominance…
Google Loses Technology Control of Android…
Smartphones Grow Share Dramatically to dominate the total cellphone market.
III. Clouds Are for Consumers (and Startups). Even as a large number of enterprises move pilots onto external clouds, it will become clear that the real trend is for enterprise to stay away from clouds in all key areas, for reasons both of security and reliability.
IV. Security Splits the Tech World in Two, finally getting Front of Mind (and wallet) attention from CEOs: companies with real IP, and the others (Meat vs. Mashed Potatoes).
V. SIRI Stuns the World.
VI. We Enter the Amazing World of Dave and HAL, as Voice Recognition comes of age.
VII. E-Readers Prosper, but Pads Continue to Dominate the CarryAlong Market.
VIII. The Consumption World Explodes. Get ready for new devices, new content, new bundles, new connection techniques, new distribution channels, new aggregators, new pads, new phones, new players, new self-published authors, new garage bands, new consumption models riding on social networks: there is nothing but high energy in the content consumer market. People are now ready to spend subscription money for this sector, and the publisher response will be huge.
IX. Governments and Corporations Focus on IP as though it were their most prized asset. It is.
X. Amazon Gets It All.
You have to read the whole thing at SNS.
Glen Hiemstra is a futurist, author, speaker, consultant, and Founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech, workshop or consultation contact Futurist.com.