This archive futurist.com article was written by Glen Hiemstra, Futurist Emeritus.
Glen Hiemstra founded Futurist.com in the 1990’s and is now Futurist Emeritus in the Think Tank. An internationally respected expert on creating preferred futures, long-range planning and assessing future trends, Glen has advised professional, business, community, and government organizations for three decades. He is available to work with incredible clients on futurist keynotes and foresight consulting projects.
In a provocative article in Bloomberg Opinion today, writer Noah Smith asks will oil be supplanted by electrification. The title, The Oil Age is Coming to a Close recalls similar thinking in the 2005-2007 era when many experts thought that a lack of oil supply would bring the oil era to an end. Now, however, there is a supply glut, so what leads Smith to suggest that the oil age is coming to a close? “Demand for crude is destined to decline” he suggests. This is driven by electrification of transportation among other factors, as electric vehicle sales are expected to accelerate after 2030.
Smith explores the impact on large oil communities – probably not too bad if they can adjust to new business opportunities, and on small communities and blue-collar oil industry workers – probably not too good if the example of coal is any predictor.
Oil dominates today. But perhaps not for that much longer.
October 29th, 2019